Fight prediction Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira

The featherweight champion on paper, Iliya Topuria, has earned a title shot with his move up to 70 kg, where he will fight for gold against Charles Oliveira. The vacant Makhachev belt will go to one of them at UFC 317, June 29 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. It will be International Fight Week, and it is a spectacle not to be missed.

• Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira;
• Ilia Topuria;
• Charles Oliveira;
• Comparative analysis;
• Game Totals Prediction.

Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira

Ilia Topuria

In lightweight, "Legenda" is not ranked, but in P4P he is ranked 4th. Iliya has MFE belts, black belt in BJJ, and also UFC belt in 66 kg. Previously, he was engaged in Greco-Roman wrestling, but he is also good in kickboxing. In fact, with the victory over Holloway, he can be credited with the BMF title, but Max did not put it on the line, so we will not.

Before he got his 16th bet on his victory by knocking out "The Blessed One," Iliya had finished off Volkanovski, and had also beaten Emmett, Mitchell, Herbert and others. And now, he will enter the cage as a confident favorite.

Strengths

The Spaniard combines a submission game with pressure and a monstrously powerful striking technique, at least that's what it seemed like in the featherweight division. The speed of his strikes, combinations, desire to take the victory by finishing, along with near-perfect timing, give him the opportunity to get to striking distance in time and develop attacks on the ground if the situation requires it.

Weaknesses

We are talking about a debut in a new weight class – these are different speeds, opponents’ strength, dimensions and much more. The same Volkanovski looked pretty good with him in the first round, maintaining the necessary pace, and Oliveira can compensate for this with his size. We’ll just see how other shortcomings will be revealed.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Ilie is only 28 years old, he is incredibly charged with becoming a champion of two UFC categories, and also taking the scalp of Charles, as one of the most outstanding fighters of the promotion. Probably, Topuria is not even at his peak yet, so we should expect bright fireworks from him.

Charles Oliveira

"Du Bronx" is ranked 2nd. The guy has a black belt of 4th dan in BJJ on his waist, the same black belt in Muay Thai, the status of ex-UFC champion, the league record holder for finishes, the winner of the PFC Grand Prix, and the world champion in jiu-jitsu.

In his last five fights, the Brazilian has disappointed the bettors who support him in fights with Tsarukyan and Makhachev, but he has beaten Poirier, Chandler (twice), Gaethje and Dariush.

Strengths

Charles is variable in his game plans, but he has one line: try to knock down or even knock down through the stand, where he is really dangerous, and only then look for victory on the ground, if he has not been knocked down before. Oliveira is good at kickboxing and grappling, but this is crossed out by a number of shortcomings.

Weaknesses

"du Bronx" has had and still has serious problems with defense. Trying to exchange blows at close range, he always misses, and his durability is not what it used to be. And on the ground, he finished his opponent in 2022 - Gaethje, who likes to get caught in submissions. Age takes its toll, and the situation with the "reliable block" does not change at all.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

In a few months, Oliveira will be 36 years old, and a defeat in the upcoming fight could be critical for his career, even if he is ranked #2. It will be very difficult to get another title shot. That is why we expect extreme concentration and a desire to prove that “I am still in the game.” However, we should definitely not count on some new level.

Comparative analysis

There is not much of a difference in height between the opponents, Oliveira's main advantage is the length of his arms. Here we see a gap of up to 12 centimeters, and this is already a significant indicator. Charles will definitely try to impose a high tempo and exchange blows in the opening seconds. Those same hands and kicks from a distance will allow him to break Topuria's pressure, plus he can try to hit well.

It's hard to predict how much Iliya's speed will drop, or even if it will drop at all, with his weight gain, but looking at his previous fights, there is a feeling that even with the Brazilian's size, it will be very difficult for him to keep up with the Spaniard. The "Legend" will quickly close in with combos, press the opponent to the net and finish him off there, like Volkanovski or Holloway.

And Charles's leg passes with clinches are unlikely to confuse him - his low center of gravity will allow him to confidently defend himself against them. On paper, Topuria is not inferior in the clinch/parterre and is better in the stand-up, but we will not call this a mismatch?

Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira Prediction

After such a long assessment of what is happening, we will make a conclusion: both have the necessary tools to make a KO/TKO/Submission. At the same time, Charles is bigger, more experienced, and this is his last chance for the title.

But Iliya is younger, very fast, and in terms of power one of the most frightening guys in the organization, so there is every reason to believe that Oliveira's defense will collapse. Moreover, it has failed in almost every fight - the frequency of knockdowns for the Brazilian is off the charts. A bet on an early end to the fight simply has to play, and let's add other options. Install the 1xbet app and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Topuria's early victory/Full fight – no