Prediction for the fight between Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan

The long-awaited rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan will headline the final numbered event of 2025, UFC 323, which will fill the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas with thousands of spectators. This crucial matchup, taking place on the morning of December 7, will be decisive in the Russian's career.

• Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan;
• Merab Dvalishvili;
• Petr Yan;
• Comparative analysis;
• Game Totals Prediction.

Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan

Merab Dvalishvili

Merab consistently ranks in the top three of the "best of the best" rankings. "The Machine" has three UFC belt defenses, holds the league's takedown record, and has won several trophies in sambo and judo.

We've backed Dvalishvili 14 times in a row, and we've been right: no matter who he fights, O'Malley or Sandhagen, Nurmagomedov or Cejudo, this guy wins. And the longer he fights, the more confident he becomes, regardless of his age.

Strengths

Dvalishvili is becoming invincible: he has the best wrestling in the division, complemented by increasingly confident striking. Without a hint of fatigue, with an abundance of close combat, pressure, and endless punches, he stalks his opponents, draining them of all energy. Plus, this guy takes punches as if his head and jaw were filled with concrete.

Weaknesses

Merab has trouble controlling himself on the ground; Yan and Nurmagomedov, for example, have gotten up quickly, though this is often mitigated by the number of takedowns. Even in the heat of the moment, the champion sometimes gets hit, and O'Malley has even managed to rock him.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Despite being 35 years old, "Mashina" (Machine) still outperforms all the young talents like a timeless classic. Only a couple of months have passed since his last appearance, but it's unlikely to have a significant impact on the quality of his performance. Four fights in a year—all title fights—leave no doubt about Merab.

Petr Yan

Petr is also number 3, but not in the P4P rankings, but in the regular rankings. We're looking at a former champion who hasn't made a single defense, a former belt holder in one of Russia's top leagues, and who has successfully adapted his boxing to the realities of MMA.

Yan is 3-3 in his last six fights, and while he's currently on a roll, having defeated Yadong, Figueiredo, and McGee, he previously lost to Sterling, "Sugar," and Merab. Yes, his fight with Marcus isn't exactly a contender, but winners are judged.

Strengths

Petr has good takedown defense, honing his choke and ground control skills against Artem Tarasov, actively adding numerous kicks, knees, and quick punches. Decent cardio and tenacity also help the former champion move forward.

Weaknesses

In close battles, judging from his first encounter with Merab, over a 25-minute period, Yan still loses pace and offensive initiative. At times, he becomes too focused on defense, becomes stale, and is unable to find alternative solutions. However, no critical weaknesses can be found here.

The current form and readiness of the fighter

Petr is 32 years old. He was injured in his first match against Dvalishvili, and in 2024 he tore his ACL, but he's had about five months off now, so he should be fine. Since this is a crucial fight, we can expect Yan to give it 200%; otherwise, he won't be able to dethrone the champion.

Comparative analysis

Neither fighter has a height or reach advantage. Looking at the last fight, and considering Petr's arm injury, we can expect him to be much more active in the rematch, and we're unlikely to see a 50-45 from the three judges. After all, he never had any major issues defending takedowns – he got up quickly, but his coaches should have figured out how to handle pressure over the past couple of years.

It seems impossible to overcome Merab, since even Nurmagomedov couldn't do it. Therefore, it's in Yan's best interest to do everything possible to avoid getting into close combat with "The Machine."

Over the past two years, Petr has suffered a couple of serious injuries. His fights with the opposition, frankly, have been far weaker than Merab's. He's also won three times since their last meeting, compared to Merab's five. It's also hard to say that "Besposhchadny" has improved significantly, but the champion's progress is obvious. Simply put, the Yekaterinburg representative will have to step up his game, and now is the perfect time to do it.

Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan Prediction

Even if we stretch our imagination and imagine that Merab has worn himself out in the months since his last fight, and won't be able to maintain his previous pace, the best we can expect from the upcoming fight is a split decision victory for Dvalishvili. How can Yan snatch the victory? Is he superior on his feet, or is he capable of completely erasing the champion's wrestling?

Or maybe he won't get stuck against the fence under Merab's pressure and tire from spamming takedowns? The answer to all questions is likely no. However, if a surprise does happen, betting on the underdog is still risky; it's better to bet on the fight's duration. Install the 1xbet app and place a bet on the favorite!

Prediction: Dvalishvili wins by decision/Total Over (3.5-4.5) by rounds